Chances of Ukraine-EU Association are less than 50 percent, Sikorski says

The chances of Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych signing the Association Agreement are less than 50 percent, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in a November 20 interview on Polish radio. He criticized Yanukovych for waiting until the last minute for meeting EU requirements. “Ukraine made a significant mistake in this process,” he said. The agreement was scheduled to be signed at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29.

Zenon Zawada: Sikorski’s remarks accurately reflect the view among Ukraine’s pro-EU contingent. For the agreement to be signed, Yanukovych will have to make a dramatic last-minute maneuver to arrange for the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which we view as highly unlikely. Otherwise, the EU will have to drop its demand for Tymoshenko’s release, which we view as more likely than Yanukovych’s agreeing to release her, but unlikely all the same.