Crimean govt declares 96% support in referendum for joining Russia

The Russian-backed government of the Crimean Autonomous Republic declared on March 16 that more than 96 percent of its voters cast their ballots in favor of independence from Ukraine and joining the Russian Federation during the referendum that day. More than 81 percent of eligible voters participated in the votes, the government reported, an unusually high turnout compared to the standard Ukrainian election, drawing accusation of vote fraud by the Committee of Voters of Ukraine. The Crimean Tatar community, which makes up 13 percent of the Crimean population, and ethnic Ukrainians mostly boycotted the vote, joining the Ukrainian government in not recognizing its legitimacy.

Most of the world’s nations didn’t recognize the hastily organized referendum’s legitimacy and didn’t send their election observers, who in all likelihood would not have been allowed to work. “This referendum is contrary to Ukraine’s Constitution, and the international community will not recognize the results of a poll administered under threats of violence and intimidation from a Russian military intervention that violates international law,” said a March 16 release by the Office of the Press Secretary of the White House.

Violent incidents were reported throughout the voting day, including an attack on an Al-Jazeera television news crew. Journalists were also attacked or blocked from entering polling stations. Several Ukrainian priests and pro-EU political activists were reported to have been kidnapped.

Zenon Zawada: The results of the Crimean vote resemble those of militarily controlled regions of Russia, like Chechnya, rather than a democratically based referendum. As observers pointed out, the 81 percent turnout is impossible considering about 58% of the Crimean population is ethnic Russian (a figure based on a 13-year old census), most of whom can be considered potential supporters of referendum, but not all. The real turnout rate was about 30% in rural districts and about 50% in cities, estimated Mustafa Dzhemiliev, a Crimean Tatar MP.

We concur with the widely held view that the Russian-installed government distorted the results to its favor, using outdated lists of voters amidst an absence of any enforcement of rules and regulations (providing ample opportunity for ballot-stuffing). As a result, everybody with a pro-Russian position (including Russian citizens) were allowed to vote, with some reportedly doing so numerous times.

Russia has essentially created another Prydnistrovia (Transdneister) gray zone in Ukraine with its Crimea project, in addition to South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia. While Crimea will still be formally part of the Ukrainian state (just as Prydnistrovia is in Moldova), it will gradually become an extension of Russia on a de facto basis, with plans already underway to transition to the Russian ruble, for instance. The danger is that the Russian government will attempt to turn the entire territory of Ukraine into a gray, buffer zone without rule of law.

Crimea’s residents were euphoric in the streets yesterday but we don’t see that lasting very long. Their vacation season has been largely ruined, as Ukrainians are likely to choose other destinations and Russians will prefer to flock to Sochi. In the long term perspective, the Russian Federation won’t offer much in terms of economic development, particularly not in the way of rule of law and free markets that any blossoming economy needs.

Many are criticizing the U.S. and EU for not being more actively involved in preventing the takeover, but instead, more should have been done in earlier years to prevent this situation. In particular, the Ukrainian government did little during its 22 years of independence to prevent a Russian takeover of Crimea, which was always considered a possibility, albeit remote. By 2014, little could have been done in the reactive phase to the events. So allowing the takeover to occur was the best way to ensure peace.