Decline in industrial production deepens further in September

The decline in Ukraine’s monthly industrial production deepened to -7.0% yoy in September, the fourth consecutive month down after -4.7% in August and -0.9% in July, UkrStat reported yesterday. This  brought the cumulative 9M12 output to -1.2% yoy in 9M12 vs. -0.4% in 8M12. Machinery was the key driver, falling 20.1% yoy (vs. -13.7% yoy in August) now showing a 4.8% decline for 9M12.The decline in metallurgy slowed to -9.4% yoy in September (after -12.5% yoy in August), which still accelerated 9M12 fall to -4.5% (vs. -3.8% in 8M12). Food processing was down for the second month: -4.7% yoy (-0.9% in August). The utility sector remained the brigh spot with 6.1% yoy growth last month (+5.1% yoy in 9M12).

Alexander Paraschiy: With just a quarter left to year-end and no significant progress being seen in key sectors, machinery and steel, a decline in industrial production this year looks inevitable. We lower our 2012 industrial production forecast to -1.6% yoy.