Diplomatic, military and political updates as of mid-Feb. 14

Ukraine has entered a fast-moving phase of the crisis
stemming from assessments of a further Russian incursion into Ukraine. Given
the volume of relevant news, here are the main points:

 

Diplomatic

– Ukraine’s ambassador in the UK, Vadym Prystaiko,
stated in an interview that Ukraine “could” consider dropping its ambition to
join NATO. After the statement was seized upon by Reuters and Echo Moskvy,
Ukraine’s foreign ministry and Prystaiko clarified that nothing of the sort can
be done now, as moving toward NATO membership is enshrined in Ukraine’s
constitution. Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that this would
“significantly contribute to formulating a more meaningful response to Russia’s
concerns,” tass.com reports.

 

– Many North American and European countries and
international institutions have pulled their staff from Kyiv. All IFIs and many
Western embassies, some of Western-oriented and Western-owned businesses 
have called their staff to move closer of Lviv in Western Ukraine during
Monday.

 

Government

– German Chancellor Olaf Scholz meets with President
Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Feb. 14, and will go to Moscow on Feb. 15.

 

– Zelensky spoke with U.S. president Joe Biden on Feb.
13. Biden promised a “swift and decisive response” if Russia were to further
invade, pravda.com.ua reports. Zelensky invited Biden to come to Kyiv.

 

– Russia’s State Duma is scheduled to consider two
appeals to president Putin on Russia’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk
“republics”.

 

Military

– The buildup of military material on both sides of
the border continues.

 

– Flights from the U.S., U.K. Lithuania, and other
countries have delivered anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, among other
defensive weapons. Meanwhile, Russian and Belarusian military exercises are
ongoing.

 

Alexander Paraschiy: There is concensus in Ukraine and in the West that Putin has not made
his decision yet. Despite a lot of information that Russian military attacks on
Ukraine could happen as soon as Feb. 15-16, we believe the international
pressure and last-minute appearance of the self-preservation instinct will not
permit the Russians to realize the worst-case scenario. Our base-case scenario
is that the Russian armed forces will partially leave their military exercise
grounds north of the Ukrainian border next week and go home or to new bases
further from the border. This, however, does not mean that Russia won’t apply
any further military and hybrid pressure on Ukraine in the future, possibly
with a peak during the next heating season.