Donbas ceasefire upheld on July 28 after 100-plus violations the prior day

Only one violation of the Donbas full and
all-encompassing ceasefire occurred on July 28 in the war zone, reported this
morning the press service of the Joint Forces Operation. One shot was fired
from a grenade launcher near the village of Shumy in the Donetsk region. “The
shot was off target and had a provocative character, which is why our soldiers
didn’t fire in return,” the press service said. On July 27, the first full day
of the ceasefire, the OSCE mission reported 111 violations of the ceasefire
regime, including 21 explosions, all of which were reported in the Donetsk
region. In the neighboring Luhansk region, the majority of the armaments (21 of
22) of the Russian-backed forces were positioned in violation of the
restrictions of the July 22 agreement. The Russian-backed forces also
restricted the movement of OSCE monitors and deployed drones, also in violation
of the agreement.

The shootings by Russian-backed fighters are violations
of the ceasefire regime itself, but they aren’t a violation of the truce as a
whole, Oleksiy Reznikov, the deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation to the
Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk, said during a July 28 webinar. “I am
convinced this is a violation of the ceasefire regime, but not the regime of
the truce, because the very complex of additional measures foresees conducting
the appropriate reviews, investigations of the actions of violators and
informing the OSCE special monitoring mission about this, which, in its turn,
is supposed to inform the Trilateral Contact Group about the reasons for such
violations, the fact of renewed shootings,” said Reznikov, as reported by the
Ukrinform news agency. He said a special meeting of the security subgroup of
the Trilateral Contact Group would be held that evening to discuss the
violations, though news media today have yet to confirm whether that meeting
occurred.

Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma resigned his
position as head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group,
the President’s Office confirmed on July 28. Kuchma said he would continue to
offer advice and assistance, while the President’s Office said his replacement
would soon be announced. Reznikov confirmed during the webinar that he will
serve as the lead negotiator, since he currently serves as Kuchma’s deputy
head.

Zenon Zawada: If the
ceasefire can’t be upheld, then the truce can’t be upheld. We don’t expect
either will be upheld for an extended period. We expect Reznikov will continue
to insist that a truce is in place for as long as he can plausibly do so before
the public. We believe part of the motivation is to convince Zelensky’s core
electorate, in the southeastern regions, that progress is being made in ending
the war, which is that these people want most. This is intended to boost
results for The People’s Servant party in the local elections scheduled for
late October, though we doubt this tactic will work. The Opposition Platform
For Life party, which supports the Putin regime, will make large gains in these
regions.

Kuchma’s resignation was expected after Zelensky
mentioned his desire to step aside at a May 20 press conference. We believe the
81-year-old politician played largely a symbolic role in the talks in recent
years, having submitted his first resignation in October 2018 (before the newly
elected Zelensky recruited him back). We expect Reznikov will be promoted to
lead the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group. He is as solid a
negotiator as the Ukrainians will find, with an extensive legal background that
enabled him to become among Ukraine’s most respected attorneys. He also has
demonstrated his ability to speak uncomfortable truths
about the war, though he will be playing politics when insisting a truce is in
place.