Donbas conflict still highly dangerous, German Foreign Ministry says

The conflict in Donbas is not frozen but still highly
dangerous, German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel said in a statement published
on Jan. 3. The recent exchanges of war prisoners offered hopeful signals but
much shooting continues and heavy weapons remain, he said. “For us, this
conflict is neither frozen nor forgotten,” Sigmar said. “Quite the opposite,
it’s very relevant and highly dangerous. We will continue to do everything to
resolve this crisis that will finally bring peace to this region.”

The lethal defensive weapons supplied by the U.S. to
Ukraine won’t have a big impact, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis told Voice
of America in an article published on Dec. 29. “As long as no one wants to
invade Ukraine, hopefully it won’t have any big impact,” he said. Mattis also
said he doesn’t see “an evolving US military role” in Ukraine beyond the
current training of Ukrainian soldiers to NATO standards.

There’s no threat of a large war in Donbas, Yevhen
Marchuk, the Ukrainian representative to the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk,
said on Ukrainian television on Jan. 3. However, he said it’s possible the
situation will unfold in a way that’s disadvantageous for Ukraine. Russia’s
hybrid war against Ukraine will conclude in shorter time than the 20-year war
in Northern Ireland, Marchuk said.

Zenon Zawada: It’s
positive that the European leadership understands that the war in Donbas is
still active and potentially dangerous, despite the declining casualties in
recent months. We are confident that the Russian leadership will escalate the
warfare to influence the election campaign in Ukraine this year. (Presidential
elections are scheduled for March 2019).

While we agree with Marchuk’s view that there’s no
threat of a large war in Donbas, we believe Russia continues to maintain the
option of expanding the warfare in Ukraine. A possible scenario is fomenting
chaos during the 2019 elections and exploiting it to encourage rebellions among
pro-Russian separatists in the Russophile cities of Kharkiv and Odesa. However,
the strong poll ratings of Russian-oriented parties suggest that violence might
not be necessary.

Russia could also decide to fulfill the Minsk
Accords if the results of the 2019 parliamentary elections in October are
unfavorable. But we believe Russia would be achieving victory even upon the
fulfillment of the Minsk Accords because that would ensure its influence in
Kyiv. We are confident that Russia will pursue its hybrid war in Ukraine until
it secures a loyal government in Kyiv.