Donbas fighting flares as U.S. raises the stakes

Fighting flared in
Ukraine’s Donbas region on May 17, inflicting at least nine casualties and 11 injuries on both
sides, news reports said. Among those, two civilians were killed and two
injured by heavy artillery enemy fire in the village of Troyitske in the
Ukrainian-controlled territory of the Donetsk region on the early morning of
May 17, the Joint Forces Operation reported. Oleg Mamiyev, the Ossetian
commander of the “international brigade” of Russian-backed fighters, was killed
the night of May 17 in the vicinity of Avdiyivka in the Donetsk region.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces took control of the village of Pivdenne in the
Donetsk region.

Ukraine’s National
Guard has received American-made 500 anti-tank grenade launchers, Interior
Minister Arsen Avakov announced on May 18. He didn’t mention who paid for them,
but it’s likely to be the U.S. government. These armaments follow the arrival
of Javelin anti-tank missile in late April.  Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald
Trump issued an order on
May 16 asking leading state bodies to prepare for applying new sanctions
against Russian defense officials for failing to fulfill the Intermediate Range
Nuclear Forces Treaty.

U.S.-provided
armaments are intended to halt expanded Russian military aggression, U.S.
Special Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker told the BBC during his May 17 visit to
Donbas. Ukraine is not capable militarily of returning Russian-occupied Donbas
under its control, he said. Instead, the lethal, defensive weapons supplied by
the U.S. will help Ukrainian forces uphold their defense of the separation
line.

“If they’re not able
to hold the line, then that’s an invitation for further advancements,” he said.
“What this does is that it tells the Russians very clearly, ‘You’re not going
to get any more without it being very costly to you’.” The cost for Russia for
further advancement has already increased and will continue to increase, he said.
“If that’s the case, then you have to ask yourself if you’re sitting in Moscow,
‘What are we getting out of this? We are getting Russian casualties. Soldiers
getting killed fighting in Ukraine. For what?”

Zenon Zawada: All these reports confirm that the
conflict between Russia and the West in Ukraine is intensifying on all fronts:
militarily, economically, politically and informationally. Volker has made
clear that intensifying the conflict is a central part of the U.S. strategy in
Donbas in order to make the war more costly for Russia. And his comments
yesterday indicate that the U.S. government is well aware of the high risk for
expanded Russian military aggression.

We are confident that the Russian leadership won’t halt its military
aggression in Donbas ahead of the 2019 elections in Ukraine. Doing so would
ensure not only Poroshenko’s re-election, but also Ukraine’s continued
Euro-Atlantic integration. So even with intensifying U.S. pressure (in the
forms of armaments and sanctions), we are confident Russia will extend its
military aggression until the October 2019 parliamentary vote, at minimum. The
results of this vote will guide Russia’s leaders on how to proceed further.