Donbas frozen conflict will ensue if Minsk not fulfilled, Klimkin says

A frozen conflict in Donbas and further destabilization of Ukraine will ensue if the Minsk Accords are not fulfilled, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told Ukrainian television on Nov. 20. “The Minsk Accords are political obligations by Russia,” he said. “We are supposed to force Russia to fulfill its fundamental steps, at least. The alternative to Minsk is freezing (the conflict) and Russia’s further destabilization of Ukraine.” The current international system of sanctions is in place to ensure Russia’s fulfillment, he said.

Zenon Zawada: There’s widely held view in Ukraine, shared by us, that a Donbas frozen conflict is in fact preferable to the fulfillment of the Minsk Accords, which entails reintegrating this hostile region into the Ukrainian state. We are confident Russian President Putin plans to use a reintegrated Donbas to place pressure on Kyiv to stop Western integration. This will occur with the vast autonomy the region would gain, in addition to possible representation in central bodies.

That’s the rather pessimistic scenario if Minsk Two is fulfilled. Yet the Ukrainian leadership is well aware of the near impossibility of Minsk Two actually being fulfilled, given the aggressive approach of the Russian leadership in extending this conflict. Poroshenko’s policy of sticking to Minsk Two – without considering any pragmatic alternatives to ending the war – will inevitably lead to the new U.S. foreign policy leadership having to make decisions with Russia with little input from the passive Ukrainian leadership.

It’s entirely possible that the Poroshenko administration secretly wants a frozen conflict to emerge rather than the reintegration of Donbas. But they’d better hope that this stubborn parroting of “Minsk Two or nothing” will lead to that conclusion, rather than the West imposing reintegration, with high risks of internal destabilization to follow.