Donbas residents want to merge with Russia, poll reveals

Close to two-thirds of the residents (64.3%) of the
occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions (collectively known as “Donbas”) want to merge
their land with the Russian Federation in one form or another, according a poll
published on Nov. 8 by the dt.ua news site. Only 13.4% want the solution being
pursued by the Russian government, which is being part of Ukraine with special
status, and only 5.1% want to return to Ukraine as earlier, which is the
solution that has been advocated by the Ukrainian government.

About 76% of the residents of occupied Donbas agree
with the Russian narrative that the war is an “internal Ukrainian conflict,” with
the Ukrainian and U.S. governments bearing full responsibility, according to
the same poll. About 86% of respondents said they don’t believe the Russian
government bears responsibility. Moreover, 64% of respondents said they believe
the Ukrainian government should bear the full cost of renewing Donbas, while
only 16% believe Russia should be responsible.

Of all the political leaders, the residents of
occupied Donbas most trust Russian President Vladimir Putin, or 11.2% of
respondents. In second place was Russian television talk show host Vladimir
Solovyov, who has the trust of 9.1% of residents. The third most common
response was Donbas residents trusting no one, at 7.2%.

The poll was conducted by the New Image Marketing Group
polling firm, in cooperation with the dt.ua news site and Ukrainian Institute
for the Future, between Oct. 7 and 31 involving 1,606 respondents who are
residents in the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Zenon Zawada: It’s no
coincidence that the Voice parliamentary faction declared its opposition to
fulfilling the Minsk Accords on the same day these poll results were published.
Voice faction head Serhiy Rakhmanin served as the political editor for dt.ua,
the news site that was involved in producing the poll. So the Voice party is
using this valuable evidence to back its position on abandoning the Minsk
Accords and freezing the warfare, which would prevent the agreement’s likely
fulfillment on Russia’s terms.

Unfortunately for Ukraine’s pro-Western forces, all
these efforts are “too little, too late,” in our view. We doubt Zelensky would
have won the contest for president if he campaigned on the platform of pulling
out of Minsk Accords and freezing the conflict. And even if he were to attempt
to do so, we are confident that Russia would merely exploit Ukraine’s
vulnerable position and continue its offensives in Donbas. The Voice party has
yet to explain how to freeze a conflict when the enemy has all incentive to
continue to be on the offensive.

It’s worth considering this poll was conducted
under conditions of ongoing war and vast distrust among the public, which may
have been suspicious that Russian state agents were conducting the questioning
(despite any claims that might have been to the contrary). Nonetheless, many of
Ukraine’s pro-Western politicians who are against Zelensky’s plans are relying
on the results, which would confirm that Ukraine will be absorbing a hostile
population of several million people – inundated by Russian news propaganda –
should the Minsk Accords be fulfilled, which will inevitably occur under a
scenario favorable to the Kremlin. The opposition has been quiet so far, but we
are confident that some attempt will be made to prevent this scenario by
Ukraine’s pro-Western forces. How that will happen is not yet clear, but that’s
when true instability could erupt in Ukraine.