E.U. must prepare for intense Russia relations, resolve Ukraine conflict, Maas says

The E.U. must prepare for more intensive strategic
relations with Russia, for which resolving the armed conflict in Ukraine will
be necessary, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas told a July 13 meeting of the
European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee. In the meantime, a “minimal
consensus” is being preserved in the E.U. regarding foreign policy towards
Russia, which is based on the regular renewal of sanctions. “I believe that we
need more. That’s why we want to prepare for the time when it will be possible
to talk more intensively about strategic relations with Russia again. I believe
this needs to be prepared. We will address this theme in the framework of our
chairmanship of the E.U. Council,” Maas said, as reported by the Deutsche Welle
news agency.

The Normandy Four negotiations to fulfill the Minsk
Accords, and the Paris summit agreements in December, are moving slowly, Maas
acknowledged. A full ceasefire has not been achieved, nor have been the Paris
agreements on withdrawing forces, he said. “The negotiations are not easy.
Progress is limited, but a decision on eastern Ukraine will be a precondition
for talking about the Russia topic at all within the E.U.,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: We don’t
see any breakthrough regarding the armed conflict in Donbas, almost no
likelihood for a new peace agreement to emerge, and we expect the current
stalemate to be extended for the foreseeable future (at least for another year,
but likely longer). Maas is quite accurate in stating that the E.U. has a
“minimal consensus” on dealing with Russia, which is based on the biannual
renewal of sanctions. And it’s to the credit of Ukraine’s foreign policy team
that this consensus has been upheld for six years, despite intense Russian
attempts to undermine it.

There are three conceivable scenarios that can ruin
this consensus. First, the Ukrainian public can get increasingly exhausted from
the war and increasingly vote for pro-Russian politicians. We expect the
Opposition Platform For Life party to have strong results in the southeastern
regions in the October local elections. If early presidential or parliamentary
elections are held in the next two years, it’s conceivable this party can
secure the presidency or parliament, though we give this scenario no better
than a 40% likelihood.

Second, E.U. citizens can increasingly vote for anti-immigrant
political parties that are aligned with Russia, which has been the trend for
the last six years. With enough of such politicians, decisions in the European
Parliament and E.U. Council will increasingly be made in Russia’s favor. We see
this as the more likely game-changer in the ongoing stalemate between Russia
and the West over Ukraine. But again, such a pro-Russian E.U. majority is not
likely in the next two years.

Finally, it’s conceivable that E.U. corporations
can work behind the scenes, even in loose cooperation with anti-immigrant
forces, to convince the E.U. leadership that fighting over Ukraine isn’t worth
continuing to isolate Russia from the emerging global order. But this is highly
unlikely.