Elections in occupied Donbas set for Nov. 11

The parliaments of the self-declared Donetsk and
Luhansk People’s Republics, propped up by Russia, voted on Sept. 7 to set
elections for parliament and prime minister for Nov. 11, news reports said. The
Donetsk parliament also elected Denis Pushilin as its new prime minister after
he served as speaker since September 2015. In response, the Ukrainian Foreign
Ministry asked Western leaders to intensify sanctions against the Russian
government for allowing the vote to occur.

Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, who
represents Ukraine at the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk, said the same day
setting elections was a serious step that violates the Minsk Accords and
threatens the peace talks. The next day, EU Spokeswoman Maja Kocijancic issued
an official statement condemning the elections as violating the spirit and
letter of the Minsk Accords.

Zenon Zawada: Setting
elections for Nov. 11 could not have happened without the approval of Russian
President Putin, who has been in intense negotiations with Western leaders on
the possibility of introducing UN peacekeepers in war-torn Donbas. So at
minimum, Putin is raising the ante in his talks. He also could use the
organization of elections to include them as part of a legitimate fulfilment of
the Minsk Accords. We put the likelihood of Putin agreeing to a UN
peacekeeping, in good faith, at 50%, given that he doesn’t have overwhelming
geopolitical gains (as compared to losses) from their fulfilment in the coming
year.

Some pundits argued that the assassination of
Donetsk People’s Republic leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko put an end to
peacekeeping possibilities, while others have argued that the killing would be
used by Putin as a diplomatic opening to fulfill the Minsk Accords. We believe
Putin is keeping all his options open but will have to reach a decision on
peacekeepers no later than this month. At least a month of preparation is
needed to give some minimal appearance of legitimacy to the Donbas elections
(which are otherwise illegitimate). And holding the elections eliminates any
hope for peacekeepers until 2020, at the earliest.