EU compromise denies Tymoshenko’s right to compete for presidency

The EU’s proposal for a “partial pardon” for imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko includes a $200 million fine and loss of her civil rights for three years, European MP Marek Siwiec reported on his blog on October 17, when discussing the report prepared by the diplomatic mission led by former European Parliament Chair Pat Cox and former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski. The proposal also included cutting Tymoshenko’s prison sentence in half, he stated. “Since the prime minister has sat out more than half of the reduced term, there is a basis for her conditional, pre-term release,” he said.

Her loss of civil rights includes depriving her of the right to compete for the Ukrainian presidency in early 2015, Siwiec wrote. Any compromise has its downsides, but this one seems to be the single possibility, he stated. Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who is being asked to arrange for Tymoshenko’s release, must be made to understand that the EU doesn’t see a solution to the situation beyond this proposal, Siwiec said.

Zenon Zawada: The significance of Siwiec’s report is it’s demonstrating that the EU leadership is capable of backing down on previous requirements surrounding Tymoshenko’s release, such as her right to compete for political office. Incidentally, her abstention from the elections is one of the requirements that we have identified as critical to finding a compromise.

Yet the EU proposal requires a pardon from Yanukovych, which we see low odds for. Yanukovych knows that Tymoshenko will exploit a possible pardon for political ends to discredit him, which former Internal Affairs Minister Yuriy Lutsenko began doing after gaining his pardon. Yanukovych is also concerned about the harm to his credibility in pardoning a politician who never submitted such a request, particularly when the Party of Regions leadership has insisted that she do so as a compromise from her end. The pardon would also allow Tymoshenko to be involved in next year’s presidential campaign, which may or may not harm Yanukovych’s re-election bid. At minimum, it creates new risks.

If the EU leadership is willing make trades on Tymoshenko’s freedom (which it previously indicated it wouldn’t), then we expect Yanukovych will ask not only that she abstain from a presidential candidacy, but that she refrain from returning to Ukraine during the election campaign, at minimum. He might demand some hefty behind-the-scenes concessions as well.

In avoiding this potential can of worms, we like the solution offered by Party of Regions Parliamentary Faction Chair Oleksandr Yefremov, which involves approving legislation that would allow Tymoshenko to travel to Germany for medical treatment, which avoids taking the high risk of placing all chips on a Yanukovych pardon.