EU to decide on Ukraine association agreement on November 18

The EU leadership decided to postpone its decision to extend an Association Agreement to Ukraine to November 18, EU MP Pawel Zalewski reported on his Facebook page on September 25. The EU Foreign Affairs Council had been planning to reach a decision at its October 21 meeting, as reported by the Kommersant-Ukraine newspaper. In addition, former Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and former European Parliament Chairman Pat Cox will present on November 15 their report on the status of their efforts to arrange for the release of imprisoned former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. Their report before the European Parliament was originally planned for October 15, Kommersant reported.

Zenon Zawada: The bad news about the postponement is that the conflict surrounding Tymoshenko’s imprisonment has yet to be resolved. If a decision had to be made on October 21 by the EU on signing the association pact, it could have been negative. Yet we are also witnessing a moral hazard with the decision’s postponement. It’s obvious that President Viktor Yanukovych is waiting until the very last minute to make a decision. So he could have made a decision on the eve of the October 21 meeting, for all we know, without it having to be postponed.

The good news about the postponement is the EU leadership is doing everything possible to enable the signing of the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. If it had given up on the Ukrainian government, it wouldn’t have bothered with extending the deadline. The move buys time for everyone involved – for Yanukovych to get more legislation approved and implemented, for Tymoshenko to rethink her goal of competing in the 2015 presidential election, and for the pro-Ukraine camp within the EU to appeal to the holdouts to vote in favor.

We point out that signing the agreement – which holds enormous symbolic value – doesn’t mean it has to be ratified by the member-state parliaments. Nor does Tymoshenko have to return to Ukraine before the February 2015 presidential vote, which also could be part of a compromise. We believe the ultimate compromise – which we have confidence in – will have to have such nuanced dimensions, as with any major conflict in Ukraine.