26 August 2014
Leaders from the European Union, the Eurasian Troika and Ukraine will meet today in Minsk to discuss the remaining issues on the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, the conditions of a new natural gas agreement between Gazprom and Ukraine and proposals to resolve the war in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Ahead of the summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on Aug. 23 in a historic visit to Kyiv and asked him to assist the EU in achieving a face-saving way for Russian President Putin to exit the armed conflict, reported the Reuters news agency. Ukrainian forces have gained the momentum in the war this month and are on pace to secure a military victory within weeks, news reports said.
The summit might provide Poroshenko and Putin the first opportunity to meet face-to-face since June 6 in France. It will also involve EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton, EU Trade Commissioner Karel de Gucht and EU Energy Minister Gunther Oettinger. Belarus and Kazakhstan will also be represented, besides the Russian Federation.
Zenon Zawada: It’s hard for anyone to predict the summit’s outcome, given Putin’s utter unpredictability. Though he has given signals that he’s interested in a resolution, it’s doubtful he’s willing to sacrifice his federalization hopes for Ukraine. The summit will be viewed as a success if some first steps are genuinely agreed to and undertaken to de-escalate the Donbas war. A preliminary gas agreement would also be a victory, though even more unlikely than a war agreement, in our view.
We believe Poroshenko and Merkel have agreed upon a face-saving plan for Putin and will offer it to him as an exit from the conflict. It will be seen whether the concessions offered will be enough for him to bite. Poroshenko risks losing some domestic popularity for conceding to Putin, but ending the conflict will compensate for that in time for the October parliamentary elections, in our view.