European Parliament lacks majority to ratify pact, MP says

The European Parliament lacks a majority that would vote to ratify the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement, in the view of MP Rebecca Harms, as reported by the Tyzhden.ua news site on Feb. 27. The EU’s list of 11 requirements indicates what the Ukrainian government must achieve if it’s serious about the agreement. “But since doubts about rule of law remain, I don’t see a majority in the European Parliament that would agree to an Association Agreement,” she said. As some of the most glaring recent rule of law violations, Harms cited the current prosecution of imprisoned opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko for murder and declarations of her guilt by the Prosecutor General’s Office. She also cited concerns that Tymoshenko’s defense lawyer, Serhiy Vlasenko, could be arrested.

Zenon Zawada: Harms revealed the elephant in the room of Ukrainian Euro-integration. Even if the Association Agreement is signed in November – the odds of which we put at no better than 50/50 – a majority would be hard to scrape together in the European Parliament to approve it. Moreover, the governments of each EU member-state must approve the agreement, perhaps an even greater hurdle. That’s why the signing of the Association Agreement is better viewed as having more geopolitical value than any pragmatic effects, at least in the short term. Its greatest value would be as having blocked Ukraine’s membership in the Customs Union.