Expanded Russian invasion of Ukraine “worth expecting” in the fall, says retired U.S. general

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. Army commanding
general, said “it’s worth expecting” the Russian army will invade Ukraine’s
Kherson region, bordering Crimea, under the pretense of resolving a
humanitarian crisis of lacking water supply, according to Ukrainian media
reports. Such an incursion can occur in September, when Russia will conduct its
planned Kavkaz 2020 military training exercises in Crimea, he reportedly said.
A large number of armies and military potential will be in Crimea, which has “a
significant drought owing to the weather and because Ukraine correctly blocked
the water that comes from the Dnipro River to the North Crimean Canal on the
peninsula,” Hodges reportedly said on June 24 the Dom Russian-language, state
television network aimed at the occupied territories. “I hope I am mistaken,
but I have a vision – and it’s typical of what Russia has done in the past –
that during the Kavkaz training, they will declare humanitarian crisis in
Crimea owing to water, and will say later that they didn’t have a choice.”

Pro-Russian activists were dispatched to a town in the
Rivne region to guard a June 23 meeting of Serhiy Lytvynenko – a single-mandate
MP of The People’s Servant party – with voters in local elections campaigning.
Nationalist activists of the National Corps party, also present outside the
building to protest the politician for his alleged calls for capitulation to
Russia, began chasing Lytvynenko’s car as he drove away, prompting street
fights with the pro-Russian forces. One of the latter group reportedly threw a
petard that exploded near a police chief and hospitalized him. 

The activation of pro-Russian street thugs is part of
the latest phase of the Kremlin’s hybrid war against Ukraine, said on his
YouTube channel Serhiy Sternenko, a nationalist activist named a suspect for
murder in what he insists was self-defense. The Patriots For Life group, whose
athletic members have appeared at several political events in recent weeks, is
led by MP Illia Kyva of the pro-Putin Opposition Platform For Life party. “In
this seventh year of war against the Russian Federation, began by the Russian
Federation, a pro-Kremlin party has created forces that will be defending the
ideas of the Russian World absolutely freely, absolutely calmly on the streets.
But in reality, they are going to promote the Russian occupation,” Sternenko
said on June 23, adding his view that they will eventually be calling for
Russian military intervention.

Zenon Zawada: A growing
number of political players are warning of a Russian military assault this
year. At the moment, Russia is slowly and gradually pressuring Ukraine’s
capitulation on many frontlines, with the goal of causing social unrest,
political destabilization and destroying public support for President Zelensky.
To reach that goal, pro-Russian politicians and bloggers in Ukraine have been
actively promoting a narrative in recent weeks of the Zelensky administration
being incompetent at governing (this view is also shared, rather appropriately,
by pro-Western forces).

Pro-Russian figures have also been increasingly
leading street protests, in recent days joining medical workers in front of the
Kyiv City Administration who are complaining of not having received any salary
in recent months. This marks an accelerating trend of pro-Russian forces taking
up the cause of socio-economic issues, which had always been the domain of pro-Western
forces. Another increasing trend is pro-Russian street protestors – namely the Shariyists and Kyva’s
“patriots” – clashing with nationalist counterparts, as was the case in the
Rivne region on June 23.

We can’t rule out anything with Russian President
Putin, who has shown himself to be ruthless and unpredictable in his actions in
Ukraine. So a military incursion to provide water supply to Crimea is entirely
possible, as are invasions beyond the Kherson region if enough social unrest is
fomented. Rising tensions and violence is a likely outcome given the current
trends, and the local elections to be held in late October.