External trade deficit jumps 2.5x yoy in 4M08

Ukraine’s external trade deficit totaled USD 7.4 bln (-13.4% of GDP) in 4M08, 2.5x higher than in 4M07, the State Statistics Committee reported yesterday. Exports rose 30.9% yoy to USD 19.4 bln, while imports grew 50.3% yoy to USD 26.7 bln. The main contributors to the export growth were ferrous metals (+41.2% yoy), machine building (41.3% yoy), and vehicles (50.5% yoy). The rise in imports was driven by machine building (+32% yoy) and vehicles (+90% yoy). Andrii Parkhomenko: We believe that the State Statistics Committee’s data on external trade is less reliable than the one of NBU, which is expected to be released this week. We forecast external trade deficit (including services) to reach 5.8% of GDP in 2008.