France no longer demanding unconditional resignation of al-Assad

France will no
longer demand the unconditional resignation of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad, French Ambassador to Germany Sylvie Bermann told the kommersant.ru
news site in an interview published on May 7. “We are not going to decide for
the Syrian people, but the demand for the unconditional resignation of Bashar
al-Assad is no longer an issue,” she said. “The idea that was formulated at the
Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi – and endorsed by the UN special
representative to Syria – proposed forming a constitutional committee that will
develop a new constitution. But it seems to me the Syrian regime isn’t doing
that.” She referred to the congress that met in Russia in January 2018.

Zenon Zawada: Al-Assad, who is backed by Russia, is
consolidating his power in Syria, which is gradually drawing the reluctant
recognition and acquiescence of Western leaders. This is relevant to Ukraine
because Russian President Putin hopes to create a similar scenario in the
mid-term: prop up a regime and then gain Western approval for the regime by
creating the stability that the Westerners themselves weren’t able to do. Putin
had accomplished that with former President Yanukovych until the EuroMaidan
protest spontaneously erupted.

We believe Putin has the ability to create his Ukraine scenario in the
mid-term (two to five years), especially with the rising tide of populist-nationalist
governments in the EU. Putin’s main hurdle to accomplishing his geopolitical
goals in Ukraine is the Western sanctions, which we expect will be in place for
the mid-term. If Putin begins to see that the Russian economy won’t survive the
sanctions long enough to establish control in Ukraine, we see an even
likelihood of expanding military aggression. In the meantime, he will aim to
gain a friendly parliamentary opposition in Ukraine’s Rada resulting from the
elections (scheduled for October 2019), if not a possible majority (which we
see as less likely).