Full ceasefire agreement to be signed on July 27, Zelensky says

The leaders of the Normandy Format nations are scheduled
to sign on Monday, July 27 a peace agreement on the war in Donbas that will be
based on a “full and all-encompassing ceasefire” along the separation line, the
President’s Office reported on its website on July 23. The statement didn’t
describe how this would take place between President Zelensky, Russian
President Putin, German Chancellor Merkel and French President Macron. Zelensky
said he hopes these four leaders will sign the agreement, which will “raise the
status of these agreements,” he said.

Diplomats representing Ukraine, Russia, Russian-backed
Donbas and the OSCE at the Trilateral Contact Group to resolve the war in
Donbas reportedly reached an agreement on July 22 for a full and
all-encompassing ceasefire, as well as disciplinary measures for those in
violation, a prohibition on the positioning of heavy artillery at population
centers, and a prohibition on offensive and reconnaissance maneuvers (including
the use of drones). The ceasefire is scheduled to start at 00:00 on July 27.

The agreement also calls for the launch and activation
of a “coordinating mechanism on violations to the ceasefire regime with the
support of the Joint Centre for Control and Coordination in its current
membership,” as well as the launch of two new checkpoints – at the Donetsk town
of Zolote and Luhansk town of Shchastia – no later than Nov. 10.

Zenon Zawada: It seems
like the driver behind this new agreement is the introduction of new
administrative mechanisms to prevent an escalation of offensives once the ceasefire
regime is inevitably violated. For instance, retaliatory fire is allowed only
by top commanders, and only after their unsuccessful attempts to resolve
ceasefire violations using the coordinating mechanism (administered by the
joint centre). Moreover, all orders must be made public by commanders, which
makes clear that they conform with the agreements in place and that they
reflect their true military actions.

As the new OSCE special representative in Ukraine,
Heidi Grau is likely trying to offer some unique contribution to resolving this
conflict and justify her appointment (and the OSCE’s mission overall). This is
an admirable attempt to find a new means to implement a ceasefire, but
ultimately ceasefires depend on the mutual will of the fighters involved. But
we see that will being absent at the moment.

We see the best outcome of these well-intentioned
innovations as a reduction of shootings and offensives, but not a total
ceasefire. It’s not clear if the three world leaders were even consulted on
signing this pact, nor whether they offered their agreement to signing such a
document that could leave them embarrassed. In that light, we will be surprised
if it’s signed.