G-7 states agree to extend sanctions against Russia

The G-7 states decided on May 26 to support extending their economic and travel sanctions against the Russian government until the full implementation of the Minsk accords. The sanctions can be removed once Russia fulfills its responsibilities, the declaration said, adding that they could also impose new sanctions to pressure Russia if necessary. The conflict in eastern Ukraine can be resolved only through diplomacy, the declaration said, stressing the importance of maintaining a dialogue with Russia. 

Ukraine Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin told Ukrainian television on May 26 that the Ukrainian government is advocating for thousands of armed police in an OSCE mission to Donbas, depending on their mandate and positioning. However, in his view, the mission should fully monitor the border with full access, as well as oversee arms caches, he said. The position of the Russian government is to keep armed police at a minimum, he said.

After a May 24 telephone discussion between the Normandy Format leaders (Hollande, Merkel, Poroshenko, Putin), the Ukrainian Presidential Administration announced that the OSCE armed police mission drew unanimous support. Meanwhile, the Russian Presidential Administration said they agree only to boost the current OSCE mission’s effectiveness.

Zenon Zawada: Sanctions were extended because the G-7 nations have high hopes for local elections in Donbas and establishing the de facto autonomy. However, we expect support will drop dramatically if this doesn’t happen by the year end. That’s why the next six months will be dramatic in Ukraine.

The OSCE police proposal is critical in achieving the elections, which otherwise could not have been organized. Yet we see a less than 50/50 likelihood of them being held regardless, owing to fierce opposition from Ukrainain paramilitaries and Russia’s likely refusal to compromise on key conditions.

We agree with the recent assessment of a Ukrainian MP that Ukraine has reached a dead end. Lack of strong leadership makes the country vulnerable to further Russian aggression and separatist activity, which is an increasingly possible outcome if the elections aren’t held.