Gazprom sees less LD pipe demand in 2012-14; negative for HRTR

Gazprom’s (GAZP RX) demand for large diameter pipes will decrease 40% yoy to 1.35 mmt in 2012, the company’s representative said yesterday. Gazprom decreased purchases of LD pipes 4x yoy to 0.32 mmt in 6M12. The company’s needs for large-diameter pipes are estimated at 1.40-1.45 mmt for the next two years – far less than the 2.2 mmt recorded in 2011.

Roman Topolyuk: Gazprom’s new forecast has negative implications for Khartsyzk Pipe (HRTR UK), which benefited reported a record production volume of 630 kt in 2011, partially due to deliveries to Gazprom. Now that Gazprom’s demand is shrinking, we believe it can be satisfied entirely by Russian producers. This will leave Khartsyzk Pipe to potential orders from Russian Transneft or projects in other markets. So far, the company seems to have no large projects in its portfolio: having fully supplied contracted volumes to Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in April, the company cut its pipe output 42% mom to 23 kt in May 2012.