GDP rises 6.6% yoy in 3Q11, in line with preliminary estimates

Ukraine’s GDP grew 6.6% yoy in 3Q11 and was up 2.2% qoq in seasonally-adjusted terms, in line with preliminary estimates, UkrStat reported. The key takeaway from the fresh data is that domestic consumption remained the only driver of economic growth, while exports slipped into the red, finishing 3Q11 -3.4% yoy and -5.7% qoq. Private household expenditures increased by a hefty 15.7% yoy (+3.9% qoq) and investment into fixed capital surged 15.2% yoy (+4.4% qoq). On the production side, agriculture became the key growth driver (+16.5% yoy), followed by manufacturing (+11.9% yoy).

Vitaliy Vavryshchuk: With the economies of Ukraine’s key trading partners decelerating, we see exports remaining weak and contributing virtually nothing to economic growth in 2012. Domestic private consumption and investments will be the two factors supporting GDP expansion this year, but they will not offset the weakness in external demand. We see the economy decelerating to about 2.0% growth in 2012, from 5.1% in 2011E.