Germany proposes Steinmeier formula to resolving Donbas warfare

Ernest Reichel, the German ambassador to Ukraine, described the Steinmeier formula to implementing the Minsk Accords in resolving the warfare in the Donbas region in an interview with Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty published on Dec. 21. It foresees holding local elections under the oversight of the OSCE, which will confirm whether they met international standards. Upon confirmation, the legislation establishing the Donbas special status (de facto autonomy) would take effect.

Reichel said it’s doubtful Ukraine will be able to regain control of its border in the occupied territory before the elections, as had been earlier insisted upon by the Ukrainian president and top diplomats. In October, German Chancellor Merkel said the elections process must first begin before the introduction of an OSCE mission, followed by Ukraine regaining control of its border.

Two soldiers were killed and four wounded in fighting on Dec. 21, reported the next day Defense Ministry Spokesman Andriy Lysenko. The latest casualties were incurred after five soldiers were killed and 16 injured in a battle on Dec. 20 in the town of Svitlodarsk that produced the largest loss of life in five months.

Zenon Zawada: The Steinmeier formula is a rehash of the plan revealed in October when the last meeting of the Normandy Format leaders occurred. As we’ve consistently stated, we don’t believe the implementation of the Minsk Accords will even reach the stage of elections for numerous reasons, including the unwillingness of Donbas leaders to hold free and fair elections, as well as Russia’s likely demand that the OSCE monitors include representatives of Russia and Russia-sphere nations.

Fighting has intensified in Donbas as the Russian-backed forces reportedly attempted to break through Ukrainian lines on Sunday. It’s still unclear what’s the reason for the intensified violence, though it’s typically related to battlefield maneuvering or orders by the Kremlin for a mass media event to influence public opinion. We expect the warfare to remain relatively calm for at least the next month, until Donald Trump is inaugurated.