Gov’t work group to shed light on Cadogan’s licenses

An Interdepartmental Working Group, appointed by Ukraine’s Ministry of Environmental Protection this past July, is scheduled to meet today. According to Concorde Capital sources, the meeting could have implications for the future of Cadogan Petroleum’s (LSE: CAD LN) Debeslavetska, Pirkovskoye and  Monastyretskaya licenses. Ruslan Patlavskyy: In our view, the current share price of GBp 17.50 factors in market concern about Cadogan’s Debeslavetska and Pirkovskoye licenses, the loss of which would reduce the company’s 2P reserves by 58% to ~1.5 mmboe, which implies little share price downside potential. This said, a positive resolution on the company’s long-standing license dispute should clear our ~80% share price upside potential to GBp 32.0-33.0. Given the little downside risk vs. some 80% price appreciation potential, we see trading on today’s news with regards to Cadogan’s licenses as attractive, though speculative.