Grain harvest of 65-70 mmt expected in 2020

Ukrainian farmers will harvest about 65-70 mmt of
grains in 2020, according to the Economy ministry forecast published by Deputy
Minister Taras Vysotskyi on Facebook on Feb. 24. The weather conditions are
favorable for grains, Vysotskyi said. Ukrainian farmers harvested 75.1
mmt of grains in 2019.

Ukrainian farmers sowed 8,952 kha under winter crops,
or almost flat yoy. The sowed area under winter wheat slid 0.6% yoy to 6,408
kha, while farmers sowed 1,046 kha of barley, or 3.9% more yoy in 2020 season.

Andriy Perederey: The Ministry forecast implying a 7 – 13% decline in grain harvest
volume looks plausible due to record high temperatures and low levels of soil
moisture in the winter season. Therefore, we expect that Ukrainian farmers will
harvest about 28-30 mmt of winter grains in the 2020 season vs. 31.8 mmt in the
previous one. All in all, we see that in the year 2020, the agricultural
segment won’t be a positive contributor to Ukraine’s GDP growth (in 2019, real
growth in farming was 1.1% yoy).