Grytsenko, Tymoshenko accuse president of scheming to undermine their election campaigns

Anatoliy Grytsenko, among the leading candidates in
the Ukrainian presidential election, accused on May 21 President Petro Poroshenko
of planning and ordering a campaign to discredit him and bar him from
competing. On his Facebook page, he said the president is leading an organized
crime group that includes high-ranking officials, MPs and law enforcement
officers. Grytsenko identified the source of his information as Viktor Trepak,
a general with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) who reported the alleged
conspiracy on his Facebook page. “The government is disturbed by the recent
sociological polls that consistently report quite a high personal rating for
this politician, and most importantly, his electoral sympathies,” Trepak wrote
of Grytsenko. “Government political technologists know well that if this
continues, Grytsenko can easily come out first in the presidential race. Hence
the decision was made to deliver as strong a blow as possible against the
leader of the Civic Position.”

Thirteen officers of the Security Service of Ukraine,
wearing masks and accompanied by dogs, conducted a search the morning of May
21of the Kyiv regional party offices of the Fatherland Party, which is led by
former political prisoner Yulia Tymoshenko, who currently leads the polls in
the presidential elections. They confiscated equipment, she said without
specifying, adding that they plan to hand a notice of suspicion in a criminal
case to Kostiantyn Bondarev, the head of the party’s Kyiv regional
organization. “This is the continuation of serious political pressure from the
president and his hierarchy,” MP Oleksandra Kuzhel told reporters the same day.
She added, “Apparently we don’t have a war, banditism, terror, or aggression.
There is only a political struggle.”

Tymoshenko enjoys 16.1% support of decided voters who
will participate in the March 2019 presidential vote, according to a poll published
early this month by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology. Grytsenko
has 12.7% support while Poroshenko has 12.2%. Tymoshenko’s Fatherland party has
14.4% support among decided voters, while Grytsenko’s Civic Position has 11.5%
and the president’s party has 9.9%, the poll said.

Grytsenko and his Civic Platform party are considering
uniting with Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi and the Self-Reliance party to compete
in the 2019 elections, reported the dt.ua news site, citing anonymous sources
in the Self-Reliance party. In their unified ballot, Grytsenko would compete
for president and Sadovyi would be backed for the prime ministership. Grytsenko
has already decided to form a political platform between his Civic Position
party and a minor party, the People’s Monitoring, the latter’s chair reported
on May 21.

Zenon Zawada: During his
tenure as president, Poroshenko has demonstrated a willingness to resort to vicious, dirty tactics against his
political opponents. So these alleged incidents targeting Grytsenko and
Tymoshenko’s campaigns are merely the beginning of what we have expected from the outset to be a
vicious, dirty election campaign. Although we expect Western election observers
will acknowledge violations, they will have to recognize the election results
to prevent Russia from taking advantage of any mass protest or disorderliness
that might ensue if the tally is called into question. They will have to, that
is, unless Poroshenko organizes systemic fraud to such an extent that it can’t
be overlooked. And the public protest is loud enough that it can’t be
overlooked.

Grytsenko has a chance to become the leading
contender as the presidential race is wide open, given electoral support for
the president has collapsed in recent months. Having worked in a
Western-sponsored local political think tank, we see him as being more consistent
on Western-backed reforms, and more willing to implement them, than any of the
current leading candidates, including Poroshenko. Having served as defense
minister, we see him as being just as capable of leading the war effort as
Poroshenko. His main disadvantage is he doesn’t have a solid political team to
fill the top rank-and-file, a problem that could be alleviated with an alliance
with the Self-Reliance party.