Hopes of diplomatic solution fade for European security

Attempts at de-escalation of tension along Ukraine’s
borders stalled after talks within the OSCE in Vienna on Jan. 13. Deputy
Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov stated on Russian TV that he saw no reason for
further meetings with the West at this time. The Russian Permanent Ambassador
to OSCE Aleksandr Lukashevich echoed the point, stating that Russia was not
getting a “constructive response” to its proposals.

After the talks OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, Minister of
Foreign Affairs of Poland Zbigniew Rau announced that he would be visiting
Ukraine and the line of contact to assess for himself the situation, especially
that of the civilians along the front. This will be the first trip of the new
Chairperson-in-Office, as Poland assumed the duties on Jan. 1.

In related notes, Ukrainian government websites were
subject to a massive cyber attack on the morning of Jan. 14. The Foreign
Ministry’s website displayed a message, “written in Ukrainian, Russian, and
Polish, warning Ukrainians to ‘be afraid and expect the worst.’”.

Also, OSCE has been reporting hundreds of ceasefire
violations on a daily basis coming from the LNR/DNR side, including what has
been determined to be live fire exercises.

James Hydzik: The sincerity
of Russia’s agreement to negotiate was openly in doubt by all concerned before
the talks started. Moreover, the tone of the negotiations was probably not to
the Russians’ liking, as the NATO meeting in Brussels took longer than planned
due to the member states taking turns to tell the Russians just why they joined
the alliance. Neither the cyber attack nor the ceasefire violations are
surprises.

Some businesses in Ukraine are dusting off
contingency plans created after Maidan and the 2014 invasion, especially those
with offices in other countries. However, the starkest effect of the tension is
the sell-off of Ukraine-related international bonds.