IMF mission to return to Ukraine in November
9 October 2015
The IMF mission will likely return in early November to discuss receiving the third loan tranche under its Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, Ukraine’s Deputy Finance Minister Artem Shevelyov said on Oct. 8, reported the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. “The work on the second revision of the program is still continuing,” he said. The IMF mission announced previously it completed its 11-day visit on Oct. 2 as part of its second review of its four-year USD 17.5 bln program.
Alexander Paraschiy: The IMF mission returning in November means that Ukraine will receive its next tranche only in December, in the best case scenario. This also means that by November, the Cabinet is expected by the IMF to have a clear vision on its 2016 spending plan. By then, the local elections will have occurred (on Oct. 25) and politicking shouldn’t prevent the Finance Ministry from developing a realistic budget at 3.7% of the GDP deficit limit (as the IMF has requested).
Such timing also means that the Ukrainian authorities will request to merge the third and fourth wires from the IMF in one tranche (of USD 3.3 bln total amount) to have all funds committed by the IMF for 2015 by the year end. At the same time, we remain optimistic regarding further cooperation with the Fund: all major reforms have been implemented while at this stage, the IMF wants to make sure that there will be no surprises with the 2016 budget.
