Industrial production decline slows to 27.5% yoy in June

Ukraine’s industrial output was down 27.5% yoy in June, shallower than the 31.8% yoy declines in May and April, the State Statistics Committee said yesterday. Over 1H09, industrial output dropped 31.1% yoy. June’s rise in industrial production, by 3.1% mom, was primarily driven by an increase in machine building (+6.9% mom), utilities (+5.2% mom), and chemicals (+4.2% mom). The performance in other sectors was more modest: metallurgy increased by 1.1% mom, food processing by 1.4% mom. Coke & oil shrank 2.6% mom. Andrii Parkhomenko: The year-on-year number came as a positive surprise for the market; the Bloomberg consensus forecast was a 30.5% yoy decline. We expected a 29.5% yoy drop. Nevertheless, we think that a rapid recovery in industrial production is highly unlikely this year and reiterate our 2009 forecast at 19.1% yoy.