Juncker proposes closer economic cooperation between EU, Eurasia

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker wrote a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin proposing closer economic cooperation between the European and Eurasian unions should the cease-fire be upheld in Ukraine, the Reuters news agency reported on Nov. 20. In the letter, he stressed the importance of good relations, “which we, unfortunately, could develop during the last year.” In the letter, he asked European Commission officials to examine possibilities to draw the European and Eurasian unions closer. “The decision depends on EU member-states and should be synchronized with fulfilling the Minsk accords,” he said in the letter, as reported by Reuters. The letter was written after Juncker met with Putin at the G20 summit in Turkey this week, a European Commission spokesperson said. However, Juncker didn’t commit to anything with the letter.

The Russian government received Juncker’s letter and confirmed that it proposed tighter economic cooperation based on the fulfillment of the Minsk accords cease-fire, said on Nov. 19 Presidential Administration Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, as reported by Interfax. He dismissed that requirement as “hardly relevant, hardly possible,” alleging that Ukraine hasn’t upheld its end of the cease-fire.

Zenon Zawada: This isn’t the first statement by Juncker indicating the EU’s interest in becoming more flexible with Russia, earlier calling for “practical cooperation.” It’s a bad sign for Ukraine, considering that economic sanctions are designed to cripple the Russian economy. Instead, closer economic cooperation would only undermine the goals of the sanctions. This is also the EU’s way of sending an indirect message, expressing discontent with the Ukrainian government.

We believe this is happening as a result of the Ukrainian government’s resistance, and in some cases failure, to engage in structural reforms called for by the EU government. His position reflects the latest wave of “Ukraine fatigue” having stricken Western officials, which is particularly bad timing for Ukraine amid the war with the Islamic State. It makes sense for EU leaders to try to make amends with Russia if Ukrainian officials aren’t fulfilling their end of the bargain.  

The Ukrainian public is well aware of the consequences of Poroshenko resisting EU reforms. We expect mass protests, or a possible revolt, will be accelerated by the possible failure to achieve the EU visa-free regime, which we see as one of a few make-or-break issues for Poroshenko. This issue is the most tangible way in which Ukrainians feel the government’s failure to reform. On the other hand, achieving the visa-free regime will serve to release the accumulating frustration in society and earn Poroshenko a reprieve from public discontent.