KSG Agro significantly downgrades its FY12 guidance

KSG Agro (KSG PW) reported some preliminary financial numbers for 1H12: net revenue of USD 7.7 mln (3x growth yoy), EBITDA of USD 13.9 mln (-29% yoy), and net income of USD 9.0 mln (2x cut yoy). Net debt increased 75% YTD to USD 37.3 mln. The company also revised downward its full-year operating guidance: its land bank is now expected to reach 100,000ha by yearend  (down 9% to previous estimate), and its harvest volume is expected to be 123 kt (down 47%). The company cut its revenue estimate for 2012 to USD 53.8 mln (down 19%), EBITDA guidance to USD 25 mln (down 41%) and net income guidance to USD 14.2 mln (down 55%).

Alexander Paraschiy: The company’s poor result for 1H, revised guidance and decreased expansion plans are of little surprise, as its land holdings fell into the epicenter of adverse weather conditions in Ukraine (refer also to our news of August 15). The company’s new guidance is now much closer to our outlook for its 2012 financials. The management’s outlook for sales and EBITDA are now 3-4% below our initial forecast (initially they were 20%-60% above), which clearly implies downside risk to our figures. We look forward to seeing the company’s full-scale financial report for 1H12 to update our valuation for the company.