Kuchma returning to Donbas peace talks, Zelenskiy says

Former Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma is returning
to the Trilateral Contact Group talks in Minsk to resolve the war in Donbas,
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told a June 3 press briefing. Kuchma
will serve as lead negotiator at the renewed peace talks in Minsk on June 5,
Zelenskiy announced at a meeting at the Presidential Administration with the
Ukrainian delegation, which included the former president. In his turn, Kuchma
said he agreed to return to the talks in order “to make decisions,” and not to
play a symbolic role. “In my life, I have gotten used to making decisions,
implementing them and being responsible for them,” Kuchma told the press briefing.
“Today’s meeting with the president shows that I have such a possibility in the
group, created in the Normandy Format, to make this contribution.” 

Oligarch Victor Pinchuk, Kuchma’s son-in-law and
business partner, visited the Presidential Administration on May 31, as
reported by the Skhemy television news program sponsored by Radio Free Europe/
Radio Liberty and Ukrainian state television. A car identified as belonging to
Kuchma’s security detail was video-recorded at the Presidential Administration on
May 28. The Presidential Administration made no announcement of such meetings,
which the news program said violated Zelenskiy’s post-election promise. “No
more backroom talks, nighttime visits to the Presidential Administration and
agreements hidden from the public,” Zelenskiy wrote on his Facebook page on May
2.

Zenon Zawada: Zelenskiy
has two main motives in returning Kuchma to the Minsk peace talks. Besides
bringing much diplomatic experience and political gravitas to the helm (which
the neophyte Zelenskiy team needs), Zelenskiy is building bridges with Pinchuk,
who controls many industrial enterprises, including Interpipe, and numerous
mass media. In having some form of partnership with the billionaire Pinchuk,
Zelenskiy will be able to counterbalance the influence of another billionaire,
Ihor Kolomoisky, who sponsored his campaign.

It’s also worth considering that Pinchuk drew
controversy in December 2017 when publishing an opinion piece in the
Wall Street Journal calling for “painful compromises”
with the Russian government in order to end the warfare in Donbas. Among his
proposals were (1) pursuing the status of EU preferred partner instead of EU
membership; (2) continuing to refuse to recognize the Crimean annexation, but
not allowing it to be an obstacle to peace in Donbas; and (3) holding elections
in occupied Donbas as part of the process to return the territory to Ukrainian
control.

In this context, Kuchma’s return is the latest confirmation
that Zelenskiy is serious about peace in Donbas and is willing to pursue
out-of-the-box solutions, like those proposed by Pinchuk. Of course, a
significant part of the Ukrainian public will view such measures as
capitulation. But Zelenskiy’s core electorate in the Russophile southeastern
regions will fully support Zelenskiy if he finds compromise with Russia. A
separate question is to what extent Russia will compromise with Ukraine and
whether it will uphold the compromise.

Meanwhile, the investment community can only view
these serious efforts for peace in a positive light, given that the ongoing
warfare is among the biggest deterrents to investment activity in Ukraine,
along with corruption, as correctly identified by Zelenskiy.