The latest attempt at a total ceasefire in the Donbas
warzone – declared on March 2 by the Trilateral Contact Group – was disrupted
by explosions and mortar fire attacks reported by the OSCE monitoring mission.
More than 200 explosions were reported by the OSCE between the evening of March
2 and 4. Meanwhile, Russian-backed forces fired at Ukrainian Armed Forces
positions seven times on March 4, employing mortar and tank fire in various
tangents, the Anti-Terrorist Operation press center reported. On the afternoon
of March 5, a Russian-backed fighter directed his rifle against an OSCE vehicle
and threatened to fire if the monitoring mission didn’t leave the territory
under rebel control. The mission proceeded to withdraw to its base in Mariupol.
Zenon Zawada: We don’t expect any success at a ceasefire in Donbas until a UN
peacekeeping mission is agreed upon. And we don’t expect a UN peacekeeping
mission to be agreed upon in the next two years. A frozen conflict is the most
likely outcome, whether achieved by Russians subverting the UN peacekeeping
mission, or a combination of EU sanctions being relaxed and exhaustion on both
sides of the conflict, with a new diplomatic agreement emerging as a result.