Liashko could form Ukraine coalition as Sadovyi rejects offer

Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told a March 14 meeting of parliamentary faction heads that he’s ready to resign if a new coalition emerges with enough MPs to support a new prime minister and program, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site, citing People’s Front Faction Head Maksym Burbak and Radical Party leader Oleh Liashko. The Radical Party is ready to help form the new coalition and government, he said. Meanwhile, the president said he has three options: forming a technocratic government led by current Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko, forming a new coalition government based on parliamentary factions and continuing support for the current government.

Self-Reliance, the fourth-largest parliamentary faction, won’t vote for any candidate for prime minister until a new prosecutor general is appointed, the Central Election Commission is reformatted and a law is approved to hold parliamentary elections under open-list voting, announced on the evening of March 14 Oleh Bereziuk, the faction head. If these conditions are fulfilled, the faction is ready to review situational support for the prime minister that will be offered by the new coalition, he said, as reported by the pravda.com.ua news site.

Poroshenko had a private meeting on March 14 with Andriy Sadovyi, the head of the Self-Reliance party, reportedly offering him the prime minister post, representatives of both sides told journalists. Yet Sadovyi declined the proposal, which he described as “dumping everything on Self-Reliance.” Poroshenko also asked Sadovyi to support the formation of a technocrat government led by Jaresko, said the president’s spokesman on March 14. Before the meeting, Sadovyi told reporters that he opposes both early parliamentary elections, as well as Self-Reliance’s return to the coalition government, reported on March 14 the Interfax-Ukraine news agency. He said a de facto coalition currently exists between the Poroshenko Bloc, the People’s Front (led by Prime Minister Yatsenyuk) and the Opposition Bloc.

Zenon Zawada: Taking into account the new position of Sadovyi and his party, the most likely scenario for Poroshenko to survive the crisis is for a new coalition to emerge between the Poroshenko Bloc, the People’s Front and Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party. We view early parliamentary elections as ruinous for the country, as they would severely delay Western funding, and we think the president understands this.

Although Sadovyi’s strategy is good for his party and will play well with the public, it’s bad for the president, who is getting boxed into an increasingly tight position. We don’t expect the president will concede to Sadovyi’s demands because he would be undermining his key levers of influence on the Ukrainian political and electoral system.