Majority of Ukrainians support winter holiday lockdown, poll says

The majority of Ukrainians, or 58%, support imposing a
nationwide lockdown during the winter holidays, according to poll results
released on Dec. 2 by the Rating Sociological Group. About 40% are against such
a lockdown. At the same time, only 44% said they support November’s weekend
lockdown, compared to 49% two weeks ago. Those opposed grew to 54% from 49%.
Only 34% said they expected the weekend lockdown to succeed in reducing the
spread of the COVID-19 disease, while 64% said they didn’t expect this. At the
same time, 42% said they support a severe lockdown instead, compared to 36% two
weeks ago. Those opposed rose to 61%, compared to 55% two weeks ago. About 58%
believe a severe lockdown would reduce the spread of COVID-19, compared to 55%
two weeks ago.

About 34% of Ukrainians are satisfied with the
activity of President Zelensky in combatting the spread of COVID-19, compared
to 62% who are dissatisfied. About 28% are satisfied with the activity of the
Health Ministry in combatting the spread, compared to 68% dissatisfied. About
28% are satisfied with the activity of the Internal Affairs Ministry in
combatting the disease, compared to 60% who are dissatisfied.

New infections of the COVID-19 caused by the
coronavirus reached 14,496 cases on Dec. 2, Health Minister Maksym Stepanov
reported this morning on his Facebook page. That’s compared to 13,141 on Dec. 1
and 12,498 on Nov. 30. Meanwhile, the number of recoveries set a record of
15,372 cases on Dec. 2, exceeding new infections that day, as well as on Dec.
1, when recoveries reached 13,882. On Nov. 30, 10,023 patients recovered. An
estimated 243 people died from COVID-19 on Dec. 2, compared to 169 on Dec. 1
and 221 on Nov. 30. 

“The main goal was to break the hurricane-like spread
of COVID-19 and to reduce the number of infected. We will see the final results
when this week concludes and we will be able to compare statistics. But in
advance, if we compare from day to day, we have already seen a decrease not
only in the growth dynamics, but the number of those infected,” Stepanov told a
Dec. 3 briefing.

Zenon Zawada: The poll
numbers indicate that Ukrainians support stronger measures to deal with the
COVID-19 disease, preferring a full lockdown as opposed to the measured
approach of a weekend lockdown. This is reflective of Ukraine being a low trust
society in which the public expects the government to take action to combat the
virus, rather than the citizens themselves. We favor the Health Ministry’s
position in that the public is largely to blame for the spread of the disease,
not even fully complying with the November weekend lockdown regime.

This also indicates the public is largely indifferent
to the concerns of entrepreneurs who have lost business because of the
lockdown. Given the appetite for popularity among Zelensky administration
officials, such poll figures will boost the chances of a nationwide lockdown
for the period between Dec. 24 and Jan. 15, as had been reported by news media to
be under consideration by key state officials.

The infection numbers confirm the effectiveness of the
weekend lockdown as cases drop immediately following the weekends before
accelerating deeper into the week. The numbers also buttress the case for a
holiday lockdown, the likelihood of which we view as greater than 50%.
Meanwhile, the number of recoveries setting records was to be expected
following the number of those infected setting records in recent weeks.

The poll numbers also confirm that President
Zelensky continues to benefit from his celebrity luster in being identified as
the most effective state actor in combating the COVID-19 disease. This is
confirmed by Prime Minister Shmyhal and his cabinet not being mentioned in the
top three of effective state bodies/actors. Yet they have been just as active
as Zelensky and his administration, but probably more so, in adopting measures
to combat the disease at the weekly cabinet meeting.