Martial law concludes as president proposes extending certain measures

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko announced on Dec.
26 that he decided not to renew martial law that had been imposed for a month
on ten of Ukraine’s most vulnerable regions. “I’d like to emphasize that the
Russian threat hasn’t gone anywhere,” he told the National Security and Defense
Council, adding that “we would have asked the Verkhovna Rada to extend this
martial law if not for the elections.” He asked military leaders to publicize
Ukraine having gained modern armaments and military hardware as a result of
martial law.

At the same time, Poroshenko asked the State Border
Service to extend certain measures imposed under martial law, without
specifying them. He said he will await from the its head, Petro Tsyhykal,
proposals “to extend these or other means that were not directly tied to the
martial law.” These measures were highly criticized but “were recognized as
absolutely justified,” he said, adding that extending them will have the
council’s support.

Among the gains from martial law being imposed is the
confirmation of the ability to deploy interdivisional military units in the
event of a Russian military invasion, said on Dec. 26 Viktor Muzhenko, the
chief of the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. In addition, the Armed
Forces confirmed their ability to mobilize military reserves in a short time
period. More than 30,000 reservists renewed their skills during training
exercises. The Armed Forces also successfully conducted complex training of
territorial defense brigades and their interaction with state bodies, he said.
The General Staff conducted large-scale organizational and training exercises
to address the threat of military aggression, he added.

Zenon Zawada: As Concorde
Capital CEO Igor Mazepa pointed out, martial law
came at a very high price tag for Ukraine. The fact that few preparations were taken
to prepare for war during the martial law period, or to actually repel the
Russian army from Ukrainian territory, indicates that the measure had more
political than military motivations. We believe President Poroshenko knew that
Russian President Putin would react exceedingly aggressively to Ukrainian navy
ships attempting to cross the Kerch Strait and hoped to impose martial law to
delay the March presidential vote. If Poroshenko had not anticipated the Nov.
25 Russian attack, then it would indicate the incompetence of Ukraine’s
military leadership.

We believe American diplomats, such as U.S. Special
Envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker, advised the Ukrainian leadership not to play with
fire by extending martial law, or making similar attempts in the future.
Nonetheless, we still believe it’s likely (higher than 50%) that martial law
will be imposed again during the election campaign. Poroshenko is desperate to
remain in office, and the polls show him trailing far behind his longtime
adversary, Yulia Tymoshenko. Postponing elections, or holding them under
conditions of martial law, will be under consideration as few alternatives are
available (transferring power to Tymoshenko is anathema to Poroshenko).

A similar attempt by Poroshenko to seek out a conflict
with Russia would have to be less obvious. At the same time, the Russians are likely to react more severely
in response to a Ukrainian military challenge, likely targeting military sites
on the Ukrainian mainland. So another Russian strike may backfire on
Poroshenko, humiliating him ahead of the elections instead of bolstering
support for him as the better presidential candidate to defend against Russia.