May 12 is tentative day to conclude severe quarantine, Shymhal says

As expected, Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers decided at
its weekly meeting on Apr. 22 to extend the severe quarantine until May 11,
with the peak of infections predicted for May 3 and 8. May 12 is the tentative
day to conclude the quarantine if two conditions are met, Prime Minister Denys
Shmyhal told the meeting. They are (1) daily changes in infection rates
remaining within a 5% range for ten days, and (2) COVID-19 patients occupying
less than 50% of hospital beds. If they are met, non-food retail and certain
service sectors will be considered for reopening, he said. Four additional
stages will follow, with their own conditions, after this first phase of
emerging from the quarantine, he said.

Ukraine has enjoyed among the world’s lowest
coronavirus infection rates, which demonstrates the timeliness of introducing
the quarantine, Shymhal said. For the remainder of the quarantine, the
government will provide for increasing amounts of testing, improving funding
and supplies for hospitals and doctors, introducing an electronic system of
self-isolation as an alternative to observations, and developing new social
standards such as wearing individual protective gear, upholding social
distancing and engaging in constant disinfection activity.

Under conditions of declining infections, Ukraine will
be able to open its border 30 days after European countries open theirs,
Shmyhal told the rbc.ua news site in an interview published on Apr. 22. “We can
observe European countries – our neighbors Poland, Hungary, Romania – and how
they will behave regarding their borders. We also see bright examples in
Germany, Spain, Italy and – depending on how they will open their borders –
it’s possible to add 30 days and understand that the same mirroring measures
will be in Ukraine, if we will have a calm situation,” he said.

Ukraine will try to keep those who returned home after
losing jobs abroad because “Ukraine is also full of work,” Shmyhal said. Those
who have returned are considered by the government to be “an exceptionally
qualified labor force, trained in Europe, which has high productivity and solid
technological and professional preparation,” he said. The government will aim
to create new jobs for them, while offering SME loans “under very comfortable
conditions,” he said. The government has not held any negotiations, officially
or unofficially, “to transport people somewhere for work” since the border is
closed, he said.

Coronavirus infections rose by 578 cases, or 8.8%, from
the prior day to a total of 7,170, according to the Center for Public Health of
the Health Ministry of Ukraine. An estimated 187 people have died from the
COVID-19 disease, an increase of 13 cases from the prior day. The number of
recoveries rose by 80 patients to 504 in total. Of the new infections, 87
cases, or 15.1%, were in the susceptible Chernivtsi region on the Romanian
border. An estimated 167 medical workers have been infected in the Chernivtsi
region, two of which have died.

Zenon Zawada: The
relaxation of quarantine restrictions as of May 12 is realistic based on the
conditions identified by Shmyhal. However, his plan for a 30-day lag behind
European countries for opening the border will cause problems for the
government. Shmyhal saying that Ukraine “is full of work” will draw scoffs of
derision from those who have returned from Europe. Not only has Ukraine lost
many jobs from the impact of the quarantine, but they don’t pay nearly as much
as those in Europe. That applies to both low- and high-skilled labor. Overall,
the coronavirus situation in Ukraine is more-or-less stable.