Merchandise foreign trade surplus was USD 0.4 bln in January

The State Statistics Committee reported yesterday that Ukraine’s merchandise foreign trade surplus was UAH 397.8 mln in January 2009, compared to negative USD 975 mln in January 2008. The exports of goods amounted to USD 2.4 bln (down 33.4% yoy), and imports to USD 2.0 bln (down 55.9% yoy). As the National Bank of Ukraine previously reported, the current account surplus was USD 467 mln in January 2009. Andrii Parkhomenko: This is the first surplus since February 2005. We believe that the squeeze in domestic demand, together with weakened domestic currency, were the key reasons for the trade deficit to turn into a surplus. An additional factor for January’s number was a 76.7% yoy drop in natural gas imports, as Russia halted supplies for the majority of the month. We forecast that in 2009 the merchandise trade deficit will shrink to USD 7.6 bln (vs. USD 18.5 bln in 2008) and current account deficit will make USD 1.3 bln (1.1% of GDP).