Metal exports from Ukraine fall 39% in 2015, association reports
3 February 2016
Ukrainian steel mills exported 17.1 mmt of finished steel products in 2015, which is a 15.3% yoy decline yoy in 2015, according to statistics provided by the Metallurgprom association, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Feb. 2. In dollar terms, metal exports fell even more, by 39% yoy to USD 6.4 bln in 2015, due to sliding prices. Ukraine exported 85.5% of its total metals output last year. Imports of metals fell 36.3% yoy to 0.7 mmt, Metallurgprom reported.
Alexander Paraschiy: Falling metal export proceeds were among the key reasons for exports’ drop in 2015. In particular, for 11M15 exports of goods shrunk USD 14.9 bln yoy and metals were responsible for 37% (USD 5.5 bln) of that decline. In light of the continued resource prices slide in global markets, we anticipate this tendency will continue in 2016.
We estimate Ukraine’s total metallurgy exports (ferrous, non-ferrous metals and ores) decreased 38% yoy to USD 11.59 bln in 2015, and will continue to fall in dollar terms this year too, solely driven by weaker prices. We forecast a further decrease of 18% yoy to USD 9.54 bln in 2016. Based on assumption of falling resource prices and gradually strengthening imports, we anticipate Ukraine’s C/A deficit widening to USD 3.0 bln (3.6% of GDP) in 2016, from estimated USD 1.1 bln in 2015.
