Ministry of Economy roundtable puts GDP growth at 3.5-4.0% in 2010

Yesterday we participated in a roundtable organized by the Ministry of Economy, along with representatives of government bodies, international organizations, think-tanks, investment companies and commercial banks (19 organizations in total were represented). The expert consensus was 3.5%-4% real growth for the Ukrainian economy in 2010 and +4.7% in 2011 and further narrowing of the current account deficit to 0.4% of GDP in 2010 (we foresee a surplus of 1-1.5%). The mean forecast points at the possibility for some UAH/USD exchange rate depreciation, to an annual average level of UAH/USD 8.23, while we expect a 2010 average of 8.10-8.15 (year-to-date the average exchange rate is 8.02). Experts agreed that public finances pose a major risk to macroeconomic stability, with fiscal deficit forecasts ranging from 2% to 8% of GDP.