Minsk Accords need to be reviewed, Reznikov says, suggesting new partners

The Minsk Accords to resolve the war in Donbas no longer
reflect the current realities and needs of the conflict for numerous reasons,
said on July 9 Oleksiy Reznikov, a lawyer who was appointed in early May to
serve as the first deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral
Contact Group in Minsk. “This is most obvious with regards to the contact line,
which was set carefully in the official Minsk Accords. The frontline, which has
been certain since the beginning of 2015, has since become outdated as a result
of the further Russian occupation by about 1,800 square miles of Ukrainian
land. It’s understood that similar anomalies deprive the entire Minsk process
of its logic,” Reznikov said, as reported by the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.

 

Reznikov called for Ukraine’s Western partners to
change their position and advocate for a review of the Minsk Accords, which can
realistically change the situation. “Being a nation on the frontline of the
current confrontation, Ukraine is the most obvious tangent for a strategy of
restraint. At a practical level, this means a review of the Minsk process and
adapting a framework for today’s dialogue, taking into account geopolitical
realities. Now is not the time to cling dogmatically to existing agreements.
Quite the opposite, creative approaches are necessary to ensure global security
and to prevent further European destabilizations,” said Reznikov, who also has
served as deputy prime minister of the reintegration of the temporarily
occupied territories since March 2020.

 

For the last year, Ukraine has made significant
efforts to renew the practical parts of the Minsk Accords, including
withdrawing forces from the separation line and reformatting its delegation to
the Trilateral Contact Group. These steps “led to no breakthrough since
Ukraine’s Russian colleagues continue to violate the ceasefire agreement, which
is the most fundamental moment of the entire Minsk process,” Reznikov said,
adding that Ukraine should consider new coalitions and including new allies. He
also called for new models of bilateral and collective cooperation with
international institutions, such as NATO recognizing Ukraine as its main
non-member ally.

 

The next day, top Russian negotiator Dmitry Kozak
called upon President Zelensky to confirm or reject Reznikov’s proposals, which
otherwise indicate Ukraine’s withdrawal from all its agreements on Donbas, and
the Trilateral Contact Group and Normandy Four talks to resolve the war. Then
on July 12, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Ukraine’s
withdrawal from the peace talks will disappoint France, Germany and Russia. The
currently constructed negotiating process will lose its basis, “and creating a
new base in the form of a new document will be exceptionally difficult,” Peskov
said.

 

Two Ukrainian soldiers were killed by enemy grenades
and rifle fire on July 13 in the Donetsk region, the Joint Forces Operation
press service reported this morning. On July 12, Russian-backed forces were
reported to have violated the ceasefire regime 16 times, the press service
said. The same day, five Ukrainian soldiers were injured, two of them in the
Donetsk region. On July 11, Russian-backed forces violated the ceasefire regime
10 times and injured three Ukrainian soldiers, the press service said. 

 

Zenon Zawada: It’s
impressive that Reznikov had the courage to say what was apparent to anyone
familiar with the Minsk Accords. He could have taken the easy path by dragging
out this illusion (as many others have done), but instead presented the public
with the harsh truth. This is based on the reality that the Russians would have
never signed the Minsk Accords had their fulfillment not led to Ukraine’s
capitulation. And then-President Poroshenko agreed to them knowing he’d never
fulfill them, with many excuses at his disposal (particularly Russian violations
of ceasefires).

 

We don’t believe the West (neither France, Germany and
not even the U.S.) will want to restart a Donbas peace process for many
reasons, but the main one being that it would severely disrupt their relations
with Russia, which are tense but stable. Moreover, the pro-Russian forces in
E.U. countries (and those businesses with ties to Russia) will have a stronger
case for relaxing sanctions against Russia.

 

Reznikov’s call for new partners could only be
referring to the U.S., since there is no other nation capable of challenging
Russia. If President Trump is re-elected in November (which we believe to be
realistic), we can expect that his foreign policy advisers will maintain
current forms of pressure, such as offering energy resources and maintaining
sanctions, but not anything more confrontational. It’s doubtful the U.S. will
be interested in the tedious process of drafting a new peace agreement.

 

It’s not clear whether Reznikov made his statements
with the permission of President Zelensky and his lead Donbas negotiator,
Andriy Yermak. If they approved his statements, it also reflects courage on
their part and a genuine interest in resolving the armed conflict. If not, they
could be very upset at him disrupting the current status quo. Statements from
either or both should surface in the next day or two.