More casualties, hardware repositioning reported in Donbas

At least two casualties were inflicted on Ukrainian forces and one civilian was injured this weekend in the war-torn Donbas region on the eastern edge of Ukraine, the pravda.com.ua news site reported, citing government sources. On Jan. 5 and 6, Russian-backed terrorists fired upon residential buildings and playgrounds in the town of Zaytseve in the Donetsk region, the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation reported on Jan. 9. On Jan. 6, terrorists violated the cease-fire 51 times using rifle fire, grenade launchers and mortars, reported the press center on Jan. 7. On Jan. 8, terrorists shot at anti-terrorist forces 29 times using rifles and grenade launchers, the press center reported on Jan. 9.

Tanks prohibited by the Minsk Accords were repositioned by terrorists in the direction of the strategic cities of Sloviansk and Mariupol, reported Ukraine’s Defense Ministry on Jan. 9. Terrorist efforts are concentrated on regrouping and strengthening subunits and heightening the readiness of its forces, the report said. The terrorists also attempted on Dec. 31 to shut down natural gas supplies to the town of Avdiyivka, which is the site of Ukraine’s largest coke producer, the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation reported on Jan. 6.

Zenon Zawada: The Russian-backed forces decided to send a clear message to the Ukrainians by ringing in the New Year on the offensive. Our predictions regarding this conflict this year include (a) Russian President Putin intensifying the attacks when he sees necessary, including when engaging in negotiations, (b) Russia maintaining the shooting in order to undermine the Ukrainian public’s support for the Minsk accords and (c) Russia escalating the war, not by occupying more territory, but with the possible bombardment of other eastern Ukrainian strategic targets. 

We view Putin’s ultimate goal with the Donbas war is using it as a tool to cause political divisions in Ukraine. We expect such domestic strife when it comes time to organize elections in the occupied territories and then establish the special status, though we doubt it will ever get that far. Putin could then use the failure to hold elections and/or establish the special status as a pretext for expanded warfare, under the guise of the West having betrayed its promises. He could also use the established special status as an instrument of political destabilization as well.