NATO confirms Russian arms buildup in Ukraine, OSCE warns of attack

NATO has observed the transfer of Russian tanks, artillery, antiaircraft systems and infantry units to the Donbas region of Ukraine in recent days, said on Nov. 12 Philip Breedlove, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, as reported by the Agence France Presse. The observations confirm what was reported by OSCE monitors, he said. The Russian-Ukrainian border is “fully open,” he added. “We should return to a situation in which this border is respected, which will enable resolving the problem of the rising number of arms in eastern Ukraine,” he said.

A Russian military attack on the Azov Sea port city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region is possibly imminent, said on Nov. 12 OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier, as reported by the Interfax-Ukrayina news agency. The shooting is most intense there, indicating possible preparations for a military strike, he said. The Russian separatist forces have moved the frontline westward since the Sept. 5 cease-fire protocols, he said. Meanwhile, about 400 kilometers of border controlled by the Russian separatists is uncontrolled, he said. The OSCE merely monitors one kilometer around two crossings, he said.

The Russian Armed Forces are actively trying to form a blockade around the port city of Mariupol, said on Nov. 12 Markian Lubkivskiy, an advisor to the head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). “In our view, the Russians are mining the area of water around Mariupol in order to block the city from the sea from one end, and from another end, to ruin the region’s economy and infrastructure,” Lubkivskiy said on national television, referring to a Nov. 11 explosion off the Mariupol coastline. All signs point to Russia preparing for a military offensive, he said.

Zenon Zawada: It’s become widely acknowledged among Western structures and governments that Russia is preparing for another military offensive in Ukraine, which has caused a selloff in Ukraine’s financial markets. However, just when this offensive will happen and with what kind of intensity is unpredictable. The risk of escalation is very high now though it doesn’t necessarily mean that Ukraine will lose more territory. Those who are concerned about further invasions of Russian-separatist forces should be ready to sell their shares of Mariupol-based companies, including Azovstal (AZST UK) and Ilyich Steel (MMKI UK), and exercise caution in investing in Metinvest bonds.