NATO to extend Ukraine membership in five years, Poroshenko says

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said he is
confident NATO will extend Ukraine membership in five years. “I am sure by that
time we will have an action plan for NATO membership. We will have a decision
on granting Ukraine membership,” he said in a television interview broadcast on
Feb. 3.

Zenon Zawada: Poroshenko
has become notorious for his unrealistic promises, and he will exercise this
“talent” to the fullest extent during the election campaign. Five years is the
duration of a presidential term, so the president is clearly hinting that his
re-election will produce such a result. Yet in our view, the only way NATO will
extend Ukraine membership in five years is if the Russian Federation vanishes,
which we view as possible but not likely. If Ukraine’s NATO membership in five
years were a realistic goal, it would give Russia even more incentive to attack
Ukraine to eliminate its military capabilities.

Indeed, Russia is currently doing everything
possible to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, which will involve either
bringing the territory back under its sphere of influence through elections –
which is not working so far – or working to dissolve statehood through
fragmentation, which is more realistic. If neither approach works in the next
three years, military attacks are all the more likely.