No alternative to Minsk Accords to resolve Donbas warfare, Putin says

Russian President Putin told a Dec. 19 press
conference that he was disturbed by Ukrainian President Zelensky statements on
his plans to try to amend the Minsk Accords. “There is nothing besides the
Minsk Accords and I was very disturbed by the statement of President Zelensky,
after leaving Paris, about how the Minsk Accords could be reviewed,” Putin
said. “A direct dialogue with Donbas is needed. That hasn’t happened. Now it’s
been announced that some changes have been submitted related to decentralization.
That’s what? Instead of the Minsk Accords? But it’s written in the Minsk
Accords that if it applies to Donbas, it’s supposed to be agreed upon with
these regions.” Overall, extending the work of the Normandy Format group is
worthwhile, he said, adding that he wants to see Ukraine approve a law on the
special status of Donbas on a permanent basis (de facto autonomy) ahead of the
planned April meeting.

At the same press conference, Putin referred to
Ukraine’s southeastern regions as eternally Russian territory, implying that it
needs to be returned. “In the course of creating the Soviet Union, Russian
territory from time immemorial – which Ukraine had no relation to at all, the
entire Black Sea coastline and western Russian lands – were transferred to Ukraine
under a strange wording, ‘For improving the proportional correlation of the
proletariat in Ukraine’ because Ukraine was rural territory,” Putin said. “This
was a somewhat strange decision, but it happened. All this is the inheritance
of the state-building of Vladimir Lenin and now we are figuring all this out.”

Zenon Zawada: These
comments confirm that Putin won’t allow any revision of the Minsk Accords,
which were intended as a trap that former President Poroshenko walked into. At
the time, Poroshenko was under immense pressure because the war in Donbas was
expanding to include the port city of Mariupol. The Russian offensive to expand
the warfront ended once Poroshenko signed the second draft of the agreement in
February 2015. We expect a similar strategy in 2020, with the Russians using
the prospect of expanded war or domestic chaos to pressure Zelensky to
capitulate gradually to its demands in Donbas.

These comments also confirm that Putin and his
entourage continue to view the Ukrainian state as a mistake of history that
needs to be “figured out” and resolved by the end of his presidential term in
2024. Whether Putin chooses to bring all of Ukraine under the Russian sphere,
or dismember the current state, both “solutions” will require violent action
because they are unrealistic to attain by peaceful means. The challenge for the
Kremlin is to provoke the Ukrainians to commit the violent actions themselves
to prompt the state’s dissolution.

If Putin succeeds in pressuring Zelensky to
capitulate to his demands in Donbas, which we believe to be a likely outcome,
that will certainly provoke violent resistance within Ukraine. And such civil
strife would provide the ideal pretext for Putin to provide his solution in
“figuring out” his Ukrainian problem.