No progress reported in latest talks to resolve warfare in Donbas

No new proposals were reported to have emerged from
extensive discussions on July 3 in Berlin involving Normandy Four officials to
plan the next steps to resolve the war in Donbas, the pravda.com.ua news site
reported. The Ukrainian delegation to these talks, which extended for 11 hours,
was led by Andriy Yermak, the head of the President’s Office of Ukraine, and
Oleksiy Reznikov, the minister for reintegrating the temporarily occupied
territories. A joint statement issued by the French, German and Ukrainian
officials called for fulfilling the agreements of the Paris summit in December,
the President’s Office website said afterwards. They said they also determined
which issues should be prioritized at the next meeting of the Trilateral
Contact Group in Minsk this week, what the agenda should be and what
preconditions are necessary to hold the next Normandy Four summit, which is
being planned for Berlin.

From his end, Dmitry Kozak, the lead Russian
negotiator on Donbas who took part in the Berlin talks, characterized the July
3 talks as “a complicated and thorough discussion on all the aspects of
resolving the conflict in accordance with the Minsk Accords,” in remarks to
reporters the same evening, as reported by the TASS news agency. A complex of
additional measures for a Donbas ceasefire could be reached at the next
Trilateral Contract Group meeting this week, he said. The sides in the conflict
should agree on how to love together and “on what trajectory they will move to
a common life,” he said. “Then there won’t be any stimuli for shooting.”

“Dozens of laws” are necessary to agree upon and
approve in order for another Normandy Four summit be arranged, Kozak said. The
diplomats also attempted to determine “concrete dates for a meeting at the
highest level,” he said. “But discussing this is very very early so far since
it’s necessary to fulfill the decision of the Dec. 9 summit to the fullest
extent. And this is an enormous amount of work, firstly from Ukraine’s end.”
The dozens of laws that are needed not only need to be drafted by Ukraine, but
also need approval from the Donbas representatives, he said.

Among these laws are amendments to Ukraine’s
constitution, Kozak said in the same July 3 press briefing, as reported by the
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty news agency the next day. “Not by July 6, but
as soon as possible. In this way, we weren’t able to gain from Ukraine today a
clear answer on when this document on constitutional amendments will be
prepared,” he said.

Zenon Zawada: In our
view, it’s not productive for these diplomats to be trying to reach “concrete
dates for a meeting at the highest level” with next to nothing being
accomplished since the Normandy Four summit in December, and no progress being
apparent. This means they are either talking simply for the sake of keeping
Russia at the table, for the sake of appearances for the public, or something
truly dramatic is occurring behind the scenes, the last of which we don’t see
as likely.

Ukraine will not fulfill the main Russian demand to emerge
from this weekend, which is approving laws – including amending the Ukrainian
Constitution – to satisfy its demands on Donbas, which will inevitably lead to
capitulation. So we can safely state there isn’t any progress being made to
resolve the war in Donbas, despite the intense talks on Friday. Moreover, we
can’t imagine what additional measures – to possibly emerge this week – would
accomplish if the main ones haven’t been agreed upon.