Normandy advisers meet, agree to extend alleged ceasefire

The top foreign policy advisers to the Normandy Format
leaders held a seven-hour meeting in Berlin on Sept. 11, the main result of
which was identified by President Zelensky afterwards as agreeing to uphold the
Donbas ceasefire regime, which he continued touting as the longest since the
outbreak of war in 2014. “The main decision that we have today is the upholding
and continuation of the ceasefire regime. That’s the main thing,” he said, as
reported by the Ukrinform news agency. At the same time, Zelensky acknowledged
the advisers “didn’t discuss all the issues and didn’t solve many issues.”
Among them are fulfilling the commitments of the December Paris summit,
preparing for a summit of Normandy Four leaders, and furthering the agenda of
the Trilateral Contact Group.

In his turn, Ukraine’s lead negotiator in the talks,
President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak, told a Sept. 13 television broadcast
that both sides have prepared a list of 100 additional war prisoners for
exchange. The specific dates will be determined at the next meetings of the
Trilateral Contact Group, he said. Another accomplishment he cited was securing
access to the Red Cross to the occupied territories by the end of the month.

Dmitry Kozak, Russia’s lead negotiator in the talks,
claimed afterwards that the Ukrainian side had agreed to ask parliament to
amend legislation to allow for the nationwide local elections, scheduled for
Oct. 25, to be held in the occupied territories of Donbas. This claim was
confirmed on Sept. 11 by Andriy Kostin, a Ukrainian representative to the
political subgroup of the Trilateral Contact Group. Yet it was firmly denied by
Yermak in a Sept. 13 television appearance, who said that he merely mentioned
that a resolution has been registered (by the Rada’s pro-Putin party) to amend
legislation to allow for elections in Donbas.

Zenon Zawada: It’s a
wonder why Zelensky and Yermak have been striving so hard for this meeting of
top Normandy advisers, and Normandy leaders (which Russia continues to refuse
to allow), when there is so little space for progress to be made. We can’t help
but think that they’re trying to pull off a mega-prisoner exchange (along with
tear-jerking television footage) to boost the ratings of The People’s Servant
party ahead of the Oct. 25 local elections. Little more than that can be
accomplished.

Meanwhile, the ongoing claims of “the longest-ever
ceasefire” are increasingly hollow, especially after the events of last week
and this weekend, when ceasefire violations were reported near the Donetsk
factory town of Avdiyivka and the Donetsk village of Pisky.

Another source of intrigue is how they brought Kozak
back to the negotiating table after his fiery late July letter
calling for an end to talks at the adviser level. We can’t help but think that
Yermak is not being fully honest with the public, particularly when denying
plans to hold local elections in occupied Donbas together with the nationwide
vote (especially when they were confirmed by a member of the Ukrainian
delegation).

Ultimately, little is being accomplished by the
Zelensky administration to end the war in Donbas because Russia has the
upperhand in the conflict. And we believe concessions are being arranged
behind-the-scenes on a de facto level, which can quickly become implemented in
the event that Zelensky agrees to resign, and/or parliament is dismissed,
creating a leadership vacuum for pro-Russian forces to take power. The script
for that scenario is currently being written by Aleksandr Lukashenko in
Belarus.