Normandy Format summit to be held on Dec. 9

The leaders of the Normandy Format countries to resolve
the armed conflict in Donbas have agreed hold their next summit on Dec. 9 in
Paris, the President’s Office of Ukraine announced on Nov. 15. Zelensky
confirmed the summit in a telephone call with French President Macron. The
initiative came from the French side, yet the final confirmation came from the
Russians, the eurointegration.com.ua news site reported on Nov. 15, citing its
anonymous sources. The goal of the summit is “to open up a new sequence of
implementing the Minsk Accords,” reported the lefigaro.fr news site, citing the
French president’s office.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry is taking a careful
approach to the summit, Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko said in an interview
with the rbc.ua news site published on Nov. 18. “Let’s control our expectations
and not set excessively ambitious tasks in front of us so that afterwards, not
finding a means of their fulfillment, we won’t say that progress wasn’t
achieved and we even slid backwards,” he said. For that purpose, the four
leaders agreed upon releasing the short communique confirming the summit, which
also entails another exchange of prisoners, as well as Russia’s return of
confiscated Ukrainian navy ships, he said.

On the other hand, if “some kind of breakthrough is
achieved, and we would want to hope for that then a new document will be
promptly produced,” Prystaiko said. “For example, all four leaders decide that
new war needs to be conflicted and there are three-four steps that need to be
done. This is the ideal scenario, but now our expectations are based on the
minimal possible outcome.”

The last Normandy Format summit was held in October
2016. The series of summits have involved the heads of state of France,
Germany, Russia and Ukraine.

Zenon Zawada: We didn’t
expect Putin to agree to a Normandy Format summit before the New Year for
numerous reasons, including having little incentive to do so. The Russians have
stressed that they would engage in the summit only if they gained concrete
proposals from the other parties. So in order to have brought Putin to the
negotiating table, we believe the Russians have been convinced, in one way or
another, that the Ukrainians will go to great lengths to fulfill the Minsk
Accords. Certainly, the withdrawal of forces at Zolote and Petrivske – even
amid enemy fire – made a positive impression. We also can’t rule out incentives
offered to Putin by the Europeans behind the scenes.

While the fulfillment of the Minsk Accords will be the
main discussion, the subject of a new natural gas transit contract can’t be
ignored. And these two political tasks will inevitably be intertwined. Russian
President Putin will have the advantage going into the summit and has the
greater ability to walk away without results. So the main question at this
point is to what degree the Zelensky administration will be willing to make
compromises to Putin in fulfilling the Minsk Accords and reaching a new gas
transit contract. And another question is to what extent will Zelensky have
support from the Europeans in not compromising Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic
integration course.