Normandy Four meeting today yet to be confirmed

News media had yet to confirm this morning whether a
meeting of foreign policy advisers of the Normandy Four countries, let alone the
leaders themselves, would occur on Sept. 11, as had been first announced by the
President’s Office on Sept. 8. Most recently, President Zelensky said his
office was doing everything possible to ensure the meeting would occur in
Berlin, which would be his first foreign trip since the COVID-19 outbreak. “We
are doing everything for a meeting of the leaders of the Normandy Four would
occur after a meeting of advisers. This speaks to us having no stops on the
road to halting war, and that we have a dialogue in the framework of Normandy
or the Trilateral Contact Group,” he told a Sept. 9 press conference, as
reported by Interfax-Ukraine.

Recall, Zelensky had announced a meeting of Normandy
Four advisers to be held on Aug. 28, which didn’t occur. The official reason
was French President Macron’s adviser being away on a trip, the pravda.com.ua
news site reported. Then presidential office head Andriy Yermak said a meeting
should occur by Sept. 10. Dmitry Kozak, the pointman on the war in Donbas for
Russian President Putin, proposed in late July ending the
Donbas peace negotiations among foreign policy advisers in letters to his
counterparts.  

Zenon Zawada: The presidential
administration is desperate for this meeting, in what we see as attempts to get
Western backing for its latest concessions to Russia, including the involvement
of Russian-backed fighters in inspecting ceasefire violations. On the flip
side, it would also like for its Western partners to reject concessions,
thereby washing its hands of responsibility before the never-satisfied
Russians. It’s worth noting that the Zelensky administration is motivated to
pursue this political path by the Ukrainian public, which responds positively
in the polls to each latest perceived step towards peace (which we view as
capitulation, along with the majority of informed observers of the conflict).

An even greater concern would be the Zelensky
administration offering concessions in order to bring Kozak back to the
negotiating table. Such a quid pro quo approach to the peace talks was
identified by Andriy Bohdan, Zelensky’s first office head, in an interview
published on YouTube on Sept. 9. “There are 12 or 13 points,” Bohdan said,
referring to alleged concessions that Yermak has promised Kozak. “All the
foreign intelligence services believe this. This is some kind of algorithm of
actions: we offer you the ships, we give you water to Crimea. We offer you
prisoners, we give you direct air connections. We offer you USD 3 bln for a
court ruling, and we give you something.”

Meanwhile, no mention was made by Zelensky in his
brief comments on the talks about Russia’s ceasefire violations being addressed
at the meeting. We can’t offer any prognosis on the likelihood of these talks
occurring. If they do occur, it will likely involve French and German advisers
putting the brakes on many of Yermak’s plans, as had been the case with his advisory council proposal.
And if Yermak plays down ceasefire violations (as he is accused of doing by his
critics), at least his French and German counterparts will address them.