October industrial output fall slows to 4.2%, 10M drop deepens to 1.4%

Ukraine’s industrial production declined 4.2% yoy in October, a slight improvement after a 7.0% yoy drop in September, UkrStat reported Nov. 16. The 10M12 industrial output decline deepened 1.4% yoy vs. 1.2% yoy for 9M12. As before, the key drags were the machinery sector (10% yoy in October, or half of September’s decline); and the steel sector, which replicated in October its September 9.4% drop. Both sectors worsened their YTD performance: machinery to -5.3% yoy in 10M12 (vs. -4.8% in 9M) and metallurgy to -5.0% yoy (-4.5% in 9M). The key leaders, as before, remained the chemical industry (+11% yoy in 10M12), energy and utility sectors (both +4% yoy in 10M12), with the latter showing a yoy decline in October on warm weather.

Alexander Paraschiy: Available steel maker plans suggest metallurgy will show about a 6% drop in 2012, suggesting  that a 5% decline for 10M is not the end of the story. The machinery sector is likely to demonstrate a decline comparable to metallurgy. In all, we see industrial output will fall 1.6%-1.8% yoy this year.